黄仁勋的最佳情景：更便宜的AI令牌推动需求增长
Cheaper AI tokens are driving more demand, and that's Jensen Huang's best-case scenario
2026年8月数据显示，AI市场出现教科书式的Jevons悖论，令牌价格持续下降，但H100 GPU租赁价格保持稳定或上升。更便宜的令牌解锁AI代理、自动化和新应用，导致需求增长速度快于单位成本下降。AI使用量必须快速增长以抵消令牌价格下降，否则硬件将变得稀缺和昂贵。
Oct 11, 2026
Jevons' paradox is Jensen's best friend. Data from Ornn, Silicon Data, and Bloomberg (as of August 2026) shows what a16z calls a textbook Jevons paradox in the AI market. Token prices keep dropping, but H100 GPU rental prices hold steady or climb. Cheaper tokens unlock AI agents, automation, and new applications, so volume grows faster than per-unit costs fall. How much demand comes from humans versus the systems themselves isn't clear, since agentic AI burns through tokens at a staggering rate. Compute demand could be artificially inflated, and even modest human usage growth could trigger outsized hardware needs.
The whole system rests on one assumption: AI usage has to grow fast enough to offset falling token prices. As long as it does, hardware stays scarce and expensive. If demand flattens, the chain from chip makers and memory suppliers to energy providers and cloud companies takes a hit. Markets could spiral from there, and how sensitive they already are became clear when US stocks dropped on reports that OpenAI's annualized revenue might be lower than previously reported.
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来源：The Decoder · the-decoder.com