比特币价格接近一年来的首次全面看涨信号

Oct 5, 2026, 2:57 a.m. EDT

2 min read

Summary

• Bitcoin’s 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages are nearing their first fully bullish alignment since 2025, reinforcing signs that its three-month recovery has endured.
• Bitcoin rose more than 40% to $87,000 in the third quarter, though its advance has recently stalled near $85,000 as the U.S. dollar strengthened.
• Similar alignments have preceded major rallies and short-lived gains, making bitcoin’s ability to remain above its 50-day average the next key test.

Bitcoin BTC$86,226.60 is down today, but its wider trend is telling a different story.

The simple moving averages of its price over the past 50-, 100- and 200-days are one “crossover” away from a full bullish alignment, where the cryptocurrency’s short-, medium-, and long-term trends al point higher at once. It would be the first since 2025.

That alignment is represented by the 50-day average sitting above the 100-day, and the 100-day sitting above the 200-day. It’s almost there. As of this writing, the 50-day average, at $79,495, is well above the other two. Meanwhile, the 100-day, currently at $79,493, his rising and on the verge of topping the 200-day at $79,539. When that happens, all three will be stacked in an order that showcases bullish momentum across all three time frames.

“That crossover would restore the order of 50-day above 100-day above 200-day for the first time since the previous alignment formed on June 24, 2025,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk.

Traders use moving averages to read the direction of a trend. When short-term moving averages sit above the long-term ones, it signals that recent prices are stronger than older ones, a sign of upward momentum.

The impending signal, therefore, suggests that bitcoin’s price recovery over the past three months is real. The token’s price has surged by more than 40% to $87,000 during the third quarter. Lately, the ascent has stalled at around $85,000 amid a sustained uptrend in the U.S. Dollar Index.

“To state a fact, the latest signal confirms the recovery has endured,” Subburaj said.

Some of the past alignments have marked the start of major rallies. One formed on Oct. 27, 2020, when BTC traded around $13,600, and held until May 2021. By then, bitcoin had hit a then-record high above $64,000. Another, confirmed in early November 2023, stayed intact until May 2024, during which bitcoin more than doubled from roughly $35,000 to $73,000.

Others have been far less rewarding. The bullish alignment that formed in June 2025 lasted 97 days, but bitcoin gained only modestly, rising from about $106,000 to $112,000. A similar set-up in June 2024 lasted just 20 days, and bitcoin fell about 10%.

“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. “The asset’s price behaviour afterwards will determine whether it becomes a sustained bull-market structure or another short-lived alignment.”

He explained that the real test now is whether bitcoin’s spot price can continue to stay above its 50-day average.

“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he said.

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