JPMorgan 预测比特币在未来十年将超越股票和黄金

JPMorgan Asset Management projects Bitcoin (BTC) will outperform stocks and gold over the next decade, but cautions that its volatility makes it unsuitable for diversifying portfolios for now.

On Monday, JPMorgan published its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, projecting a 10% annualized return for Bitcoin, compared with 7.5% for large-cap US stocks and 5.5% for gold.

The projections are part of JPMorgan’s annual outlook covering more than 200 assets to help investors plan their portfolios.

“At the moment, we do not make a case for Bitcoin as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations,” the report said. “We see Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.”

JPMorgan’s projected Bitcoin returns compared with traditional assets. Source: JPMorgan

JPMorgan projects double-digit Bitcoin gains or losses

JPMorgan’s bull case puts Bitcoin’s annualized return at 16.6%, while its bear case projects an annualized loss of 11.2%. The calculations considered BTC supply growth relative to money supply, its potential role alongside gold and network adoption.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed Bitcoin’s inclusion in the report.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade,” he wrote on X.

Hougan’s firm has published a more bullish forecast. In August 2025, Bitwise projected Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 with a base-case annualized return of 28.3%.

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