"比特币价格微涨，美联储加息预期降低"

coverage endedOct 1, 2026, 5:00 p.m. EDT

The euro is losing ground versus the greenback as spiking French bond yields revive memories of the European sovereign debt crisis.

Fed's Jefferson says 'more time' needed before decision on additional rate hikes

“Since our September meeting, yields across the term structure have increased further, a sign that investors are reassessing the evolving macroeconomic landscape,” said Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson in prepared remarks Thursday afternoon.

“My colleagues and I will need to come to our own judgment, which may take more time,” he continued.

It’s the latest sign from the Fed that markets may have gotten ahead of themselves in assessing the pace of central bank rate hikes.

The odds of a Fed move at its Oct. 28 meeting have fallen to 30% from 70% earlier this week. And the odds of one or more rate hikes by year-end have dipped to 80% from 95% one week ago.

Bitcoin tentatively rises as rates retreat

Bitcoin BTC$85,383.48 is moving up just a bit in U.S. afternoon action, now higher by 1% over the past 24 hours at $84,800.

Possibly helping the bid is a sharp decline in interest rates on Thursday, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield lower by 9.4 basis points to 5.217%. Earlier in the session, it had risen to 5.36%.

The 2-year Treasury note — because of its shorter duration, more closely tied to Fed policy — is down 12.3 basis points to 4.764% as traders pare bets on additional central bank rate hikes.

Economic news released today — jobless claims and the national PMI — gave zero signs that either the economy or price pressures were easing.

At work is likely 1) satiated bond shorts lightening up ahead of tomorrow’s key U.S. September employment report, and 2) rumblings of a budding European debt crisis as French bond spreads relative to German blow out to levels not seen since the last debt crisis more than a decade ago.

Oil jumps to session high on signs of escalation in Middle East

Citing a U.S. official, the Jerusalem Post is reporting that the Trump administration is sending a third aircraft carrier and an additional Marine unit to the Middle East.

Down earlier to below $89 per barrel, WTI crude oil is now higher by 2.5% to $92.63. Brent crude is up 3.6% to $101.53.

Something breaking? French bond market teeters

“It’s been a while since we had a European sovereign debt crisis,” wrote ZeroHedge on Thursday.

Something is going on in France, where that country’s 10-year government bond (OAT) yield is up another eight basis points today, even as the German 10-year Bund yield is lower by six basis points.

That’s widened the spread between German and French 10-year paper to 135 basis points, with credit default swap (CDS) spreads on French bonds soaring to a 13-year high.

For perspective, the 10-year Bund/OAT spread has been mostly in a range of about 50-80 basis points over the past few years.

The euro is quickly losing ground versus the greenback, down another 0.9% today to $1.1231, its weakest level in about five months.

It’s a well-known axiom that central banks tighten monetary policy until something breaks, and that could be happening across the pond.

Traders continue to quickly abandon bets on another imminent Fed rate hike. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 7.5 basis points on Thursday to 4.81%, with the odds of a Fed move in October shrinking to 33.8% after sitting at about 70% earlier this week.

U.S. Manufacturing PMI meets estimates as price pressures worsen

The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged down to 54.5 in September, from 54.6 previously. Economist forecasts had been for a small rise to 55.

Any number above 50 indicates economic expansion.

The New Orders subindex rose to 55.3 from 53.7.

The Prices Paid subindex rose to 77.9 from 71.1, topping forecasts for 72.3. Perhaps even more troubling, survey respondents reported every single commodity as up in price and exactly zero commodities as down in price.

Bottom line: The report shows an economy still in strong expansion mode with inflation pressures worsening.

Markets aren’t really reacting as traders look ahead to tomorrow’s September employment report.

NEAR token sinks 9% on reported exploit

According to crypto-sleuth ZachXBT, NEAR Intents was exploited for $3.8 million several hours ago.

NEAR Intents has reportedly temporarily suspended operations.

NEAR token is lower by 9%.

Update: “Earlier today NEAR Intents services were stopped after a security incident was detected,” wrote the NEAR Intents team. “The incident was caused by a bug in the Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure interaction with NEAR Intents smart contract.”

“The contract-side vulnerability has been patched. The operations of the NEAR Intents and near(.)com are expected to resume within 1h.”

Monthly move in bond yields was largest in four years

The 10-year Treasury yield rose by a whopping 53 basis points in September, the largest monthly move since September 2022, according to Yahoo Finance’s Julie Hyman.

She noted that the big move in yields in September 2022 was enough to knock the S&P 500 down by more than 9% that month. This time around, though, stocks barely budged, the S&P 500 dipping just 0.45%.

As for bitcoin, it fell 3.1% in September 2022 — actually not too bad a result considering the carnage in crypto that year. BTC rose 6.3% this past September.

Jobless claims continue to show no stress in labor market

Initial jobless claims edged lower to 197,000 last week, according to a just-released government report. That’s down from 198,000 previously and just below market forecasts for 200,000.

The four-week average dipped to 200,000 from 202,500.

Twenty-four hours from now, markets will get the government’s Nonfarm Payrolls Report for September, with economists expecting 90,000 jobs to have been added and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%.

Bitcoin treading water as fourth quarter gets underway

Bitcoin BTC$85,383.48 rose 42.7% in the third quarter, its best quarterly performance since jumping 68.7% in the first quarter of 2024. Ether ETH$2,695.19 rose 70.8%, its best result since soaring 160.7% in the first quarter of 2021.

Both cryptos are about flat on the first day of the fourth quarter, with bitcoin just under $84,000 and ether just above $2,700.

Interest rates have become the big macro story, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touching yet another 24-year high overnight at 5.362%. It’s since pulled back to 5.282% as bearish traders likely hedge bets ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report for September.

Economist forecasts are for the U.S. to have added 90,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%.

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As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.

Why it matters:

As stablecoins move into regulated finance, APAC is becoming a key proving ground. This report maps the region’s rules, use cases, and RLUSD’s role.

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